How Kenya held fuel prices steady for three months before Brent pressure caught up

Kenya's Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA) held retail prices for petrol, diesel, and kerosene unchanged for three consecutive months between July and October, absorbing a period when Brent crude traded near 101 USD per barrel. The pause ended with EPRA's 14 October review, when global oil price pressure finally fed through to pump prices.

The three-month hold offers a case study in how Kenya's regulated pricing formula lags international moves and what finally forced it to give way.

Kenya's inflation rate also influenced the decision to keep prices unchanged through the September-October cycle, rising to 6.8% in September 2026, its highest level since January 2024. 

According to the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS), the price increase was driven by higher prices in the Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages (9.5%), Transport (15.6%), and Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and other fuels (3.2%) categories over the one-year period. 

For forex traders, the pause-then-hike pattern matters because domestic fuel prices affect transport costs, production, and imported goods. Delayed pass-through can muddy inflation expectations and complicate external financing conditions when prices eventually move.

Why did Brent crude trade near 101 USD a barrel?

Global oil prices increased through much of September 2026 on supply concerns. Brent crude oil prices reached 101 USD per barrel in the third week of September, sometimes going above 103 USD. This was the first time Brent had hit 100 USD per barrel since July and its highest closing level since 22 May.

Uncertainty over US policy toward Iran and strained Middle East exports contributed to much of the rise in crude oil prices. With production shut-ins across the region and reduced global stocks, prices remained elevated through the second half of the year. Brent averaged 91 USD per barrel in August alone, the US Energy Information Administration reported.

A combination of US strikes on Iranian oil tankers and Iran-backed Houthi attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure pushed Brent prices higher on 9 September.

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Brent crude prices feed directly into the factors EPRA uses to calculate Kenya’s fuel prices. Pump prices can stay unchanged even when Brent rises, because the pricing formula weighs other inputs alongside crude. Higher international oil prices therefore do not reach Kenyan filling stations immediately, but as the three-month hold showed, the delay has limits.

What did the September EPRA fuel review decide?

On 14 September 2026, EPRA announced that the maximum retail prices for super petrol, diesel, and kerosene would remain unchanged for the September-October cycle as per Section 101(y) of the Petroleum Act 2019 and Legal Notice No. 192 of 2022.

The last adjustment before this cycle was in June 2026, when super petrol fell by a marginal 0.22 KES per liter. Prices also include Value Added Tax (VAT) as provided in the VAT Act 2013, the Finance Act 2023, the Tax Laws (Amendment) Act 2024, and any other relevant tax law.

The EPRA fuel review maintained super petrol, diesel, and kerosene prices at 214.03 KES, 217.86 KES, and 191.38 KES per liter, respectively. Prices vary by region due to coast-to-inland transport costs. In Mombasa, motorists paid 210.87 KES per liter for petrol, 214.58 KES for diesel, and 188.09 KES for kerosene.

Mandera had the highest petrol price at 234.68 KES per liter, while coastal towns like Kilifi retained comparatively lower rates.

For motorists, the three-month pause offered relief from the fluctuating pump prices earlier in the year. EPRA has maintained that it remains committed to fair competition and to protecting the interests of both consumers and investors in the sector.

What does this mean for forex traders?

Kenya depends on imported petroleum products, so higher energy import costs increase the amount of foreign currency required to settle international purchases, affecting the country's external balance.

Elevated transport and energy costs could put pressure on Kenya's inflation rate in the coming months, feeding into broader regional market sentiment. Market participants may pay closer attention to how inflation shapes monetary policy expectations.

Brent crude movements will continue to shape the cost side of future EPRA reviews, even if the link to pump prices is not immediate.

Traders may track upcoming EPRA reviews for signals on how international petroleum costs filter through Kenya's regulated pricing formula.

Market participants may also monitor global monetary policy from major economies for signals on interest-rate expectations and the US dollar, as changes in global yields and dollar demand can affect emerging-market currencies.

The DXY chart below shows broader US dollar movements during this period, providing additional context for the currency-market conditions facing oil-importing economies such as Kenya.

Crude prices do not automatically translate into a particular currency move. Other factors that influence the forex market include global dollar demand, capital flows, economic growth, and central bank policy, in addition to interest rates. Oil prices are not an isolated indicator; they are part of a larger macroeconomic picture.

Conclusion

The three-month pause showed how Kenya's regulated pricing formula can hold pump prices steady even as crude oil prices move in the international market. But the 14 October adjustment showed that this cushion has a ceiling.

EPRA's ability to hold prices steady through three consecutive cycles reflected the weight the pricing formula gives to inputs beyond crude. Once the gap between the formula's inputs and sustained Brent pressure grew too wide, pass-through resumed.

For forex traders, upcoming EPRA reviews, inflation data, and Brent crude movements will continue to shape Kenya's economic and currency outlook, particularly in judging how long pump prices can stay insulated from international oil moves next time.

For more information on Kenya fuel prices, visit the Exness blog page. Market participants can also follow global oil prices and the impact of the war in the Middle East on the global economy in Exness Insights.