Week 14 Exness economic calendar report: China, NFP, tariffs
By Paul Reid
China opens the week with two key PMI readings: the official NBS Manufacturing PMI and the Caixin Mfg PMI. The NBS print will hint at government-supported sectors, while the Caixin figure reveals how private firms are faring. Recent numbers have been disappointing, and with Trump’s tariffs looming, a weaker-than-expected read could rattle commodities and metals markets. Keep an eye on copper and iron ore.
Germany's preliminary CPI will give us a read on European inflation. With the ECB already cautious, a surprise move here could pressure EUR/USD. But the real show comes from the US: the ISM Manufacturing PMI. Last month, this index printed a surprise contraction. If it drops again, expect recession chatter to return. Or, if it's strong, watch for new bets that the Fed won’t cut anytime soon.
Also notable: the RBA rate decision. No change is expected, but forward guidance could shift AUD pairs sharply.
Tuesday, April 2: Tariff Day and the Powell Paradox
Trump's so-called "Reciprocal Tariffs" are due to be unveiled. Some believe they’ll be harsher than expected. Others think it's mostly political theatre. Either way, the market will move. Especially if China or the EU threaten to retaliate. Expect heightened volatility in USD/JPY, S&P 500, and metals.
The US also drops JOLTS jobs data, and Germany prints its unemployment rate. But the main event comes at 2 p.m. EST: Powell speaks. After repeating the word "uncertainty" 22 times last week, traders will listen closely for any clarity. If he hints at delays to rate cuts, equities could wobble.
Wednesday, April 3: Jobs, oil and PMI waves
ADP employment data leads the US session. It's not the most reliable predictor of NFP, but it often sets the tone. Expect speculation to swirl if the number misses or beats by a large margin.
Also on deck: US factory orders and the EIA crude oil inventory report. With WTI recently testing $83 resistance, any surprise draw could trigger a breakout. Add in China’s services PMI and Eurozone Composite PMI readings, and we’re looking at a volatile session across risk assets.
Thursday, April 4: Europe steps up, ISM non-manufacturing lands
France and Germany drop industrial production figures early in the session, and these could move EUR pairs if they confirm the continent is slowing. The ECB will be watching.
But traders will be laser-focused on the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI from the US. Last month’s services data was unexpectedly strong. If it remains resilient, it adds weight to the narrative that the US economy is still humming, inflation still sticky, and rate cuts still far off.
Meanwhile, the weekly jobless claims release will offer clues about the labor market's strength just before NFP.
Friday, April 5: NFP Friday, the great decider
The US non-farm payrolls report is the headline act. A strong print could kill off remaining hopes for a May rate cut, while a weak number might finally give doves some ammo.
Watch also for average hourly earnings (inflation signal) and labor force participation. With the Fed clearly nervous about wage-driven inflation, these data points could push markets hard.
Canadian employment data drops at the same time, so expect CAD volatility too.
Later in the session, Fed Chair Powell speaks again. The timing is suspicious. It raises the question: is he preparing to walk back something, reinforce it, or react to NFP in real time?
Narrative to watch: smart money, staged fear, and the USD trap
Despite all the talk of uncertainty, the S&P 500 has held up remarkably well. Some suspect that the Fed’s hawkish tone and repeated fearmongering are meant to shake out retail longs and allow institutional buyers to accumulate without spiking prices. "Smart money buys fear, not hype," as they say.
The dollar, meanwhile, continues to benefit from its safe haven role. But if this week’s data disappoints and inflation moderates, we could see a reversal.
Be alert, stay nimble, and use proper risk tools. If you're not trading with the Exness Trade app, set your stops. And if you're sitting this one out, try a demo trade and follow the narrative. There's a lot to learn when the game is this hot.
For more real-time insights, market breakdowns and macro analysis, bookmark the Exness blog and follow the story behind the numbers.
This is not investment advice. Past performance is not an indication of future results. Your capital is at risk, please trade responsibly.
Author:
Paul Reid
Paul Reid is a financial journalist dedicated to uncovering hidden fundamental connections that can give traders an advantage. Focusing primarily on the stock market, Paul's instincts for identifying major company shifts is well established from following the financial markets for over a decade.